Patriots Head to Buffalo as Seven-Point Underdogs Looking to Right the Ship

Alright, let's rip the Band-Aid off. The Patriots are 1-2, sitting second in the AFC East, and now they've got to go into Highmark Stadium and face a Buffalo team that is 3-0 and hasn't lost to anybody yet. That's the whole ballgame right there in two records. This one's not just about pride, it's about whether New England can hang around in this division at all before October's even over.

Here's what I can't stop thinking about heading into Sunday:

1. Drake Maye's turnover problem. The kid's thrown for 585 yards, sure, but he's also got six interceptions against just one touchdown. Six! As a guy who once nearly cost his own team a punt with a fair catch that should've been a return, I get that mistakes happen — but this is a lot of mistakes for a quarterback New England needs to trust with the offense. That number has to come down, or this is going to be a long afternoon.
2. A.J. Brown is out. Brown's on injured reserve with an ankle sprain, and that's a gut punch for an offense that's already scuffling. Mack Hollins leads the Patriots in receiving with 12 catches for 156 yards, which tells you the target distribution is already thin without their top guy.
3. Buffalo is playing like a team that isn't losing this year. Josh Allen's questionable with a knee issue, but the Bills have still ripped off five straight wins, including a 41-31 shootout over Detroit and a 24-16 win over the Chargers. James Cook III has 346 yards on the ground, and Greg Rousseau's got six sacks off the edge. This is a complete team playing with house money right now.

New England's own recent form is a mixed bag — they beat Philadelphia 24-21 and blanked Pittsburgh's offense in a 20-3 win, but sandwiched around those wins are ugly ones: a 37-13 loss at Cleveland and a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. Defensively, Robert Spillane's been all over the field with 21 tackles, and I love a guy who just shows up and does the dirty work snap after snap. But the pass rush is quiet — Elijah Ponder leads the team with just 1.5 sacks — and that's a problem against a Buffalo offensive line that's shown it can protect Allen.

DraftKings has the Bills favored by 7, with the over/under set at 48.5. That number tells you Vegas expects points and expects them to lean Buffalo's way.

How to watch: Sunday, October 4th at 1:00 PM ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, broadcast on CBS.

Our take: I want to believe. I always want to believe. But an offense that's turning the ball over at this rate, on the road, against a 3-0 team that hasn't been challenged yet? That's a tough ask. Expect Buffalo to control this one, and expect the final score to look a lot closer to that 7-point spread than a blowout — if New England can just quit beating itself.